Trump Receives Decisive Victory in Battleground States

Polling leading up to Nov. 5 had forecast an extremely close contest between the Trump/Vance and Harris/Walz tickets. In line with previous elections where polls are tight, the results often break hard for one candidate, which was the case Tuesday night. It became clear early in the evening that the Trump/Vance ticket would hold swing states on the margin, like Georgia and North Carolina, and prevail in key battlegrounds like Pennsylvania. President-elect Trump now has 295 electoral votes—exceeding the 270 needed—and will be sworn in Jan. 20.

New Senate Majority Sets Stage for First GOP Leadership Election in 17 Years

As expected, the GOP regained control of the U.S. Senate, securing 52 seats in the 100-seat chamber and picking up seats in West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana. Republicans are also optimistic about flipping the Senate seat held by Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.), with challenger David McCormick holding a slim lead. Republican challenger Sam Brown is also slightly ahead in Nevada, where incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen had been leading in the polls heading into Tuesday.

This will mark the first Senate Republican leadership election in 17 years, as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is stepping aside. The race currently appears to be between Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). According to conversations held since the election, it is likely that President-elect Trump will share his preference with the Senate Republican caucus before the secret-ballot election. Cornyn is regarded as having a closer relationship with the president-elect, though Thune’s profile and experience may ultimately hold sway. Leadership elections will take place on Nov. 13.

Additionally, committee leadership will change:

• The Senate Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Committee—a key panel for ABMA—will be chaired by Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), succeeding Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), who is retiring. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) will serve as the committee’s ranking member. Both senators are strong champions of the forest products industry and advocates for building with wood, including programs like the Wood Innovation and Community Wood Grant initiatives funded through the Farm Bill, which they will help shape next Congress.

• The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee—Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) will assume the chair, moving from her current role as ranking member. Capito, known for her pragmatic approach, has a long record of supporting Main Street businesses and will oversee the committee’s work on EPA issues (air, water, and waste), transportation, and supply chain challenges like trucking. Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.), the current chairman, is retiring, and Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) is expected to take the ranking member role.

• The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee will also see new leadership. While current Ranking Member Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) would typically move to chair, he is running unopposed for Senate Republican whip and will not serve on the panel in the 119th Congress. Likely to chair is Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), with Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) expected to fill the ranking member role, as Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) retires.

• The Senate Finance Committee will see a leadership switch as Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) assumes the chair, and Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) moves to the ranking member position. Tax policy will be a primary focus for Congress and the administration next year, and the Finance Committee oversees tax-related matters in the Senate.

GOP Set to Lead in House, with LBM Advocates Positioned to Retain Influence

In the House, about 40 races remain uncalled. As of this writing, Republicans hold 206 seats, and Democrats hold 191 in the 435-member chamber. Many outstanding races are in California, where final results may take days. All indicators point to GOP control of the House. At recent fundraisers attended by ABMA, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle speculated that the party winning the White House would also take the House.

If the current trend continues, key members of Congress who support the lumber sector will retain influential positions. Notably, Rep. Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-Pa.), chair of the House Agriculture Committee, crafted a bipartisan Farm Bill reauthorization that reauthorized funding for the Wood Innovation and Community Wood Grant programs and included forestry provisions for upstream timber suppliers. Rep. Thompson’s district, rich in National Forest System lands, is home to numerous sawmills and pulp and paper plants. He will remain a strong advocate for ABMA’s members.

Similarly, Rep. Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.) is expected to continue chairing the House Natural Resources Committee, which leads on timber policy issues in the House. As the only member of Congress with a forestry degree, Westerman has spearheaded climate-related legislation, including the Trillion Trees Act, which promotes tree planting and wood markets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

118th Congress to Wrap Up with Limited Action

The lame-duck session of the 118th Congress convenes next week. Substantive legislating is expected to be limited to a continuing resolution to fund the government through March 2025 and the passage of the National Defense Authorization Act. Any action on the Farm Bill and tax policy will be deferred to the 119th Congress, which begins Jan. 3.