With Congress in recess and the regulatory agencies relatively quiet for the moment, we thought we would provide a snapshot of how the race stands for control of Congress and the White House with less than a month to go before the pivotal November 5 election.
Four Races Could Decide Senate Control
Starting with the U.S. Senate, Democrats currently control the upper chamber by a single seat—51-49. With Senator Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) retirement announcement late last year, the Senate is effectively tied headed into the election with that open seat certain to flip to Republican. That leaves four races on which to focus—Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and Montana.
In Michigan, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) is looking to fill the seat being vacated by Senator Debbie Stabenow, who announced she was retiring after this session of Congress. Slotkin is polling ahead of her Republican opponent former Congressmen Mike Rogers (R-MI), but the race is tight and is in the “toss up” category in the well-respected Cook Political report’s analysis. Likewise in Ohio, incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is running ahead of his Republican challenger Bernie Moreno, but the race is within the polling margin of error and Cook has had this race in the toss up category for some time. In Wisconsin, sitting Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) had a 7-point lead based on polls back in August, but that race has tightened considerably, and it too is within the margin of error. Her opponent, Eric Hovde, has consolidated the Republican base and many independents in a state that is evenly divided. Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) was reelected to his seat in 2022 by a single point. Lastly, Montana is looking to be the state most likely to determine control of the Senate. Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) is trailing in the polls by about 6-8 points. However, Senator Tester has proven to be resilient over the last few election cycles and the rare Democrat who can win in a red state. Recall Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) pulled out a victory in 2022 after polls showed her trailing by the same margin a month out from election day. But most political analysts are predicting a Republican pick-up, and Cook has this race in the “lean Republican” column.
Other races to watch include the Texas Senate seat held by Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX). This race is surprisingly close as Congressman Collin Alred’s (D-TX) campaign has found traction. The Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee—the political campaign funding arm for Senate Democrats–has redirected considerable dollars to support Allred, which suggests that Democrats see a real opportunity in the Lone Star state. Cook has this race as lean Republican. Finally, Senator Deb Fischer (R-NE) is in a surprisingly close race with independent challenger Dan Osborn. A poll conducted in September had Osburn leading Sen. Fischer 45%-44%. Analysts still believe that Senator Fischer will pull this out, but the race is certainly worth watching.
The bottom line is that, barring any surprises, it is looking likely that the U.S. Senate will switch control to Republican, albeit by the slimmest of margins.
House Majority Hangs in the Balance of Toss-Up Races
In the House, Republicans hold a narrow 220-212 majority in the lower chamber. There are 3 vacancies. Twenty-six races are currently in the “toss-up “category—12 held by Democrats and 14 held by Republicans—and these races are the ones to watch that will determine control of the House. Election forecast model 538 gives Democrats and Republicans an even chance at controlling the chamber. It is literally a jump ball. At a number of political events that ABMA has attended over the last few months, Members of Congress from both parties have said that whoever wins the Presidential contest will determine control of the House.
A few races to watch include Rep. Jared Goden (D-ME), who is in a dead heat with Republican former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault. Golden has been a champion in the House for the forestry and forest products supply chain. He sits on the House Small Business Committee and is a member of the House Working Forests Caucus as well as the House Construction Procurement Caucus. Another close one is Washington’s 3rd District, where incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is facing off with Joe Kent in this swing district. Congresswoman Gluesenkamp Perez-owner of an auto repair and machine shop– has been a strong champion of workforce development programs that serve small businesses. She is also the author of legislation to accelerate deployment of innovative wood building product manufacturing. She too sits on the House Small Business Committee and House Agriculture Committee. One other to follow closely on election night is Rep. Marc Molinaro’s (R-NY) race with Democrat Josh Riley. This House race is the most expensive in the country and polling shows the two in a dead heat. Rep. Molinaro sits on three key committees for ABMA—Small Business, Agriculture and Transportation & Infrastructure. He and his staff have always been very accessible and receptive to our advocacy outreach.
All Eyes on Pennsylvania
And finally, at the Presidential level, it is looking increasingly like Pennsylvania will determine our next President. Given its 19 Electoral College votes and history showing that Pennsylvania results align closely with Michigan and Wisconsin, analysts are predicting that whichever candidate prevails in the Keystone State will be our next President. Current polling shows the race for the Commonwealth within the margin of error. In fact, that is the case with all 6 of the other swing states—Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. Across the board—Senate, House and Presidential—this election promises to be historically close. And let us not forget that we may have an “October Surprise” that may surface in the next few weeks that may weigh on the outcome. In any event, the next month promises to be an incredibly interesting ride.
