Midterm Elections: The Possibilities

We are less than a week out from the 2022 midterm elections and anticipation is running high here in Washington and around the country. Midterm elections are historically challenging for the party of a sitting President, and this year appears to be shaping up to be one more data point along that trend line.

Recall that Democrats two years after President Obama was elected lost 63 seats in the House to forfeit their majority in the lower chamber. Likewise, Republicans in 2018 shed 40 seats in the House. In the age of uncertainty around political polling, it is increasingly difficult to make bold electoral predictions, but the preponderance of evidence has the GOP winning enough seats next Tuesday to take control of the House.

The magic number is 218. Republicans currently hold 212 seats. Data points and momentum seem to suggest that it is not a question of whether Republicans take the House, but by how big a margin. Due to several Democrat retirements in the House, redistricting and economic headwinds, most prognosticators have the GOP picking up anywhere from 15-25 seats, with somewhere near 20 seats most likely.     

In the Senate, there are differences of opinion on the outcome. The political site Real Clear Politics, which averages all of the polling in each race to form projections, has Republicans picking up four seats in the upper chamber—Nevada, New Hampshire, Georgia and Arizona. The Cook Political Report—a mainstay in Washington for political expertise and prognosticating—has the Senate in more of a toss-up category with continuation of the 50-50 Senate control a scenario in the mix. Setting all this aside, the one fact that has remained constant throughout electoral history is that “get out the vote” or GOTV efforts are paramount and the party that is more successful in this area prevails. In any event, watching the returns Tuesday night should make for must see TV. 

Regardless of the outcome next Tuesday, ABMA prides itself on a bipartisan approach to advocacy and has good relationships on Capitol Hill on both sides of the aisle and in both chambers. There will be several new faces in Congress next year, and we look forward to introducing our sector to them and working with them on our federal public policy priorities.