Rising fuel costs and a competitive midterm landscape are creating important developments for the lumber and building-materials industry. From a new agreement aimed at easing diesel prices to polling that could reshape control of Congress, these developments will influence operating costs and the legislative priorities facing ABMA members in the months ahead.

Russia Diesel Agreement Aims at Fuel Prices Ahead of Midterms

Last Friday, President Trump announced an agreement with President Putin under which Russia will supply additional diesel to U.S. and global markets. The initial tranche is more than 300,000 metric tons (roughly 2.25 million barrels) immediately, followed by 500,000 tons in November and an additional 1 million tons thereafter, with possible further volumes depending on Russian refinery conditions. The Treasury Department promptly issued a temporary general license authorizing Russian diesel transactions through April 7, 2027, temporarily easing related sanctions.

The stated goal is to bring diesel prices down ahead of the November midterms, after prices had climbed sharply. Wholesale diesel prices eased modestly on the announcement, though analysts note the volumes are modest relative to U.S. daily consumption and that logistical and refinery constraints remain. For ABMA members, any sustained relief in diesel costs would help on the transportation side—yard deliveries, contractor fleets, and inbound freight—where fuel is a direct and variable expense. The deal has drawn sharp criticism from Ukraine and European allies, and its durability and actual market impact will depend on execution, tanker availability, and whether broader energy sanctions or the Iran-related disruption continue to dominate price formation.

Midterm Outlook: RealClearPolitics Polling Environment

RealClearPolitics polling averages and maps show a challenging environment for the President’s party three weeks from Election Day, with important implications for the post-November legislative calendar.

On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead by roughly 8.3 to 8.5 points. That margin is comparable to the environment that produced a large Democratic House gain in 2018. RCP’s House mapping has reflected a Democratic advantage consistent with that national environment, with the party positioned for net seat gains and control of the chamber if current trends hold.

In the Senate, RCP currently rates eight races as toss-ups. Democrats lead in the RCP average in nearly all of them (with Kansas essentially tied). Republicans would need to win four of those toss-ups to retain control of the chamber. The margins in several of those races are narrow enough that late movement or modest polling error could keep the Senate Republican-controlled. Prediction markets referenced in recent RCP analysis have placed Republican odds of holding the Senate in the low-to-mid 40 percent range, reflecting the close nature of the map even as Democrats hold leads in most individual averages.

Overall, the RCP picture points to a high likelihood of a Democratic House and a competitive Senate that could go either way. For ABMA priorities, a divided Congress would favor continued bipartisan work on supply-side housing measures while complicating broader packages. A Democratic sweep would shift the agenda more sharply. Either outcome leaves a lame-duck window and the first year of the next Congress before the next Presidential election year as the key periods for follow-on action.

Midterm Snapshot: Marshall and Collins Races

Two individual races remain highly competitive according to RealClearPolitics polling averages.

In Kansas, incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R) is tied with Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton in the latest RCP average. The race is rated a toss-up.

In Maine, incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R) trails Democratic challenger Troy Jackson by 1.2 points in the RCP average (Jackson 48.5 percent, Collins 47.3 percent). The race is also a toss-up. Collins has previously engaged on Main Street tax priorities important to family-owned LBM businesses; the outcome will influence the Senate’s balance and the prospects for tax certainty and other cost-related measures after November.

Both contests are close enough that late movement, turnout, or polling error could decide them. ABMA members in these states or with strong relationships to these offices remain well-positioned to reinforce industry priorities in the final stretch.

What This Means for Members

• Energy and inflation pressures continue to affect freight, equipment, and overall operating costs at the yard.
• Document specific cost impacts (diesel/freight surcharges, delayed starts, and related expenses) and share them with your federal offices and with ABMA. Anecdotes become leverage when paired with numbers.
• District meetings remain the highest-yield activity this month. A short yard tour or contractor conversation on fuel costs and related pressures is more effective than waiting for floor action that is unlikely before November.